Quentin Johnston's Progress: The Gut Check No. 630

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The What of the Matter

Quentin Johnston is improving as a pass receiver. That's a promising development.

However, the growth is not linear. Johnston still has weaknesses in his attack that led to setbacks last year.

The Chargers have made slight adjustments to maximize Johnston's strengths while limiting the number of tackles as his game is still developing.

Johnston's improvements and the Chargers' strategy changes have resulted in a fantastic performance for Johnston after two weeks.

Can he maintain his value as a fantasy starter? While it's too early to tell, Johnston is a valuable addition to the roster as a free agent or as a pot sweetener in a trade.

From what I've seen so far, Johnston will be no worse than a flex or match-up streamer off the bench during off weeks.

Signing Quentin Johnston is worth it because he and the Chargers have raised his fantasy floor.

The fantasy details

After two weeks, he is WR23 in fantasy football; last year, Johnston was WR107 at this time.

Quentin Johnston's two touchdowns in Week 2 elevated his value into the fantasy starting tier for nearly every league format. Subtract one from the total and he's a borderline fantasy WR3/WR4 in lineups. Subtract both and he's a borderline WR4/WR5.

Johnston and Ladd McConkey (Fantasy's WR41) have led the Chargers' passing game. Joshua Palmer has 6 targets, 4 catches and 34 yards after 2 weeks and had just 2 targets in Week 2. A knee injury limited Palmer to begin the year.

While Johnston's fantasy value at the end of the season continues to show a lot of variance, ranging between a borderline WR2/WR3 and a borderline WR4/WR5, the real improvement in his passing game is a promising development.

He's no longer a player to write off, as more reliable hands and a Chargers offense that limits his unreliability allow LA to capitalize on his physical advantages in the open field and his promise as a route runner.

At worst, you'll get a borderline WR4/WR5 in 12-team leagues this year. Last year, Johnston finished as a WR74 – a high-end roster WR7.

The Why: Signs LA is adapting its program to talent

Two weeks of data suggest the Chargers are using him a little more as an outside receiver, but are having him run fewer vertical routes.

Where the Chargers place Quentin Johnston

Depth of Quentin Johnston’s routes

Quentin Johnston's routes with notable frequency changes

The Chargers have used him less on medium and deep boundary routes, and he hasn't run a single seam route so far. While Jim Harbaugh has told the media that Johnston is a good pass catcher, I believe he left out the implicit caveat: “Quentin Johnston is a good pass catcher for what we ask of him.”

LA has Johnston run more routes where he has his feet on the ground in front of the ball and fewer routes that invite more contested scenarios (corner, seam, go and dig).

Two weeks of data can change dramatically, so I'm touting Johnston as a talent worth adding to your roster with a higher fantasy floor rather than convincing you he'll remain a top-24 fantasy receiver. That could happen, but Johnston's past struggles are why a measured approach is wiser.

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