Rafael one of only three November Category 2+ hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico » Yale Climate Connections

Heading northwest, Rafael passed about 30 miles (50 km) west of Havana, where peak sustained winds of 44 mph (71 km/h) and gusts up to 71 mph (114 km/h) were recorded at 3:50 p.m. EST . Rafael's strong winds caused significant disruptions to the Cuban power grid, triggering an island-wide blackout just days after the total failure of the Cuban power grid from October 18 to 22.

Rafael's elevation to major hurricane status on Wednesday gave the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season 17 named storms, 11 hurricanes, five major hurricanes and an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 153 (31% above average). In an average season, there are 14 named storms, seven hurricanes, three major hurricanes, and an accumulated cyclone energy index (ACE) of 117.

Rafael was disturbed by the passage via Cuba

Rafael's two-hour flight over western Cuba before entering the Gulf of Mexico destroyed the hurricane's inner core, reducing the storm to Category 2 strength with winds of 105 mph. Still, Rafael is one of only six November hurricanes ever recorded in the Gulf (Fig. 1), and one of only three Category 2+ storms. The others were second-category Hurricane Ida in 2009 and third-category Hurricane Kate in 1985.

At 10 a.m. EST on Thursday, November 7, Rafael was 200 miles (320 km) west-northwest of Havana, Cuba, moving west-northwest at a speed of 9 mph (15 km/h) with peak sustained winds of 100 mph ( 160 km/h). h) and a central pressure of 971 mb. Key West radar showed Rafael bringing some heavy showers to coastal southwest Florida and the Florida Keys, as well as parts of western Cuba. As of 10 a.m. EST Thursday, Rafael had dropped 2-5 inches (50-125 mm) of rain on the Lower Florida Keys. A 24-hour rainfall total of 6.30 inches (160 mm) was reported in Jaguey Grande, Cuba. Moisture moving north ahead of Rafael brought local rainfall amounts of up to a foot over South Carolina (see Bluesky post below).

Satellite images on Thursday showed Rafael was less impressive than on Wednesday. One eye was no longer prominent and the eyewall thunderstorms had warmer cloud tops and were no longer as symmetrical.

Rafael is expected to weaken in the Gulf of Mexico

Guiding currents for Rafael favor a predominantly westward track over the next three days, keeping the core of the storm away from any land areas. Rafael lies over warm waters of 28 degrees Celsius (82 °F) that are associated with the Loop Current that extends from the western Caribbean north into the central Gulf of Mexico. As the hurricane moves west, it encounters water that is about 0.5 degrees Celsius (0.9 °F) cooler. Wind shear is expected to be a moderate 10-20 knots, but Rafael will move into an environment of increasingly dry air, which should lead to significant weakening early next week.

There will be significant model uncertainty over Rafael's route early next week. The two thick black lines in Figure 2 above show that the European model (left) predicts a west-southwest direction toward Mexico, while the GFS model (right) predicts a more northerly direction toward Louisiana. Approximately half of the Euro ensemble members and almost all GFS members prefer the direction north, toward the central Gulf Coast of the USA. This more northerly path would take Rafael into a region of stronger wind shear and drier air, resulting in rapid weakening, and none of the ensemble members represented hurricane landfall in the United States.

There is unlikely to be any unrest in the Leeward Islands

A tropical disturbance that was over the Leeward Islands on Thursday was moving westward at about 15 mph and will bring heavy showers of 1 to 2 inches to Puerto Rico and the Dominican Republic on Thursday and to the Dominican Republic on Friday bring southeastern Bahamas. Some members of the 6Z Thursday European and GFS model ensembles indicate that this disturbance will develop into a tropical depression or weak tropical storm early next week. In its Tropical Weather Outlook at 7 a.m. EDT Thursday, the National Hurricane Center gave this system a 20% 2-day and 7-day chance of development. The next name on the list of Atlantic storms is Sara.

Bob Henson contributed to this post.