Rafael strengthens to a Category 2 hurricane before making landfall in Cuba

MIAMI – Rafael continues to strengthen, becoming a Category 2 hurricane early Wednesday morning. Forecasters said the late-season storm could reach major hurricane strength when it hits Cuba.

Millions of people along the U.S. Gulf Coast from Texas to Florida are keeping an eye on the hurricane as it batters Cuba with devastating hurricane-force winds, a life-threatening storm surge and destructive waves along the coast.

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The National Hurricane Center (NHC) said that while rapid strengthening is forecast, Rafael is expected to briefly weaken as it rotates over western Cuba. However, the storm is forecast to remain at hurricane strength (74 mph or greater) as it enters the Gulf of Mexico.

Rafael cruised through parts of the western Caribbean on his voyage to Cuba and the Gulf of Mexico. The NHC said hurricane conditions are expected over parts of the Cayman Islands until at least Wednesday morning.

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Tropical storm conditions are expected across portions of west-central Cuba and the lower and central Florida Keys through Wednesday night.

Heavy rain is expected across the western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly in the Cayman Islands and western Cuba. The NHC said rainfall totals of 4 to 7 inches are expected in the Cayman Islands and Cuba, with locally higher rainfall amounts of up to 10 inches in higher terrain. This raises concerns about flash floods and mudslides.

Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected in the lower and central Florida Keys.

Meteorologists are also concerned about the possibility of a life-threatening storm surge. The NHC said a storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is expected in the Cayman Islands and 8 to 12 feet in areas with onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba, including the Isle of Youth.

A storm surge of 1 to 3 feet is forecast for the Dry Tortugas and 1 to 2 feet for the lower Florida Keys.

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Where is Hurricane Rafael?

This graphic shows the status of Hurricane Rafael.
(FOX Weather)

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According to the latest report from the NHC, Rafael is less than 100 miles east-southeast of the Isle of Youth and moving northwest at 14 miles per hour.

Rafael has maximum sustained wind speeds of 100 miles per hour. The official forecast is for the hurricane to strengthen with winds of up to 110 miles per hour, making it a Category 2 hurricane, the highest.

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This graphic shows the current watches and warnings due to Hurricane Rafael.

(FOX Weather)

A hurricane warning remains in effect for Little Cayman and Cayman Brac as well as the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth.

A tropical storm warning remains in effect for the lower and central Florida Keys from Key West to the Channel 5 Bridge and the Dry Tortugas. The Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, Cienfuegos, Sancti Spiritus and Ciego de Avila are also included in the tropical storm warning.

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What is the forecast for Hurricane Rafael?

This graphic shows the forecast cone for Hurricane Rafael.

(FOX Weather)

According to the NHC, Rafael is expected to move further northwest over the next day or two, followed by a gradual turn toward the west-northwest in the Gulf of Mexico. Along this path, Rafael is expected to move over western Cuba later on Wednesday and move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico on Wednesday evening.

From then on, computer forecast models disagree about exactly where Rafael is headed next.

“It is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael may have on portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC said. “Residents in this area should monitor forecast updates regularly.”