Recent history is a good starting point for what to expect come Election Day 2024

(WLUK) — Months of listening to campaign ads and pulling political leaflets out of your mailbox reach a peak Tuesday, but what should you watch for as the results come in?

The first candidate with 270 electoral votes wins the White House.

A good starting point for how this will happen is to build the map from four years ago. At that time, Donald Trump won 232 electoral votes.

Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada are the real fights this year, according to Lawrence University history professor Jerald Podair.

“Basically, he has to hold every other state he won in 2020 and get 38 electoral votes from those states, and that can happen in many different combinations,” Podair said.

South Carolina is also considered by many to be a swing state. Even Iowa, which is typically Republican, could be in play after a recent poll showed Harris with a 3% lead among likely voters.

“If he loses Iowa, it will be very, very difficult for him,” Podair said.

In Wisconsin, 12 of the last 24 statewide races were decided by fewer than 30,000 votes.

That's a big reason why Trump and Harris were both here twice last week, including Trump at the Resch Center and Harris at Little Chute High School.

Her colleagues also came to visit on Monday.

“This is a classic purple state, which is why we saw a presidential or vice presidential candidate every second or third day,” Podair said.

The purple shone brightly just two years ago, when Democrat Tony Evers and Republican Ron Johnson both won statewide races in the same election. There had not been a split at the top of the ticket in Wisconsin since 1998.

Podair says that likely won't happen this year.

“I think it's less possible this time because it's a presidential race,” Podair said. “The first thing a Trump voter will do tomorrow, assuming he votes tomorrow, is vote for Donald Trump… I don't think he'll check off Baldwin after voting for Trump.”

If you're following along throughout the night, it's also a good idea to keep an eye on where the voices are coming from. Results from the most populous areas, which tend to lean Democratic, typically come later in the night.

Podair believes who controls the U.S. Senate will come down to the elections in Montana and Ohio.

He also says to keep an eye on New York's congressional elections to see whether Democrats could take control of the U.S. House of Representatives.