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Ridesharing giants Uber and Lyft are stepping in after Tesla's “toothless taxi” fails to excite investors

Ridesharing giants Uber and Lyft are stepping in after Tesla's “toothless taxi” fails to excite investors

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The Uber logo is seen in the rain in Krakow, Poland on January 6, 2024.

Klaudia Radecka | Photo only | Getty Images

TeslaThe hyped robotaxi reveal posed a threat AboveThe company's ride-sharing ambitions have instead turned into a boon for the stock.

Shares of Uber had fallen on Thursday due to initial investor enthusiasm in the run-up to the event – particularly in early August and mid-September – but rose more than 9% on Friday as enthusiasm grew again that the company was well positioned is to advance its autonomous vehicle offering. The move pushed the stock to a 52-week high and led the S&P 500 higher during the session.

That's a huge turnaround for Uber stock, which is up nearly 22% in the last month and about 38% for the year. Lyftanother major AV player, is also up about 10% on Friday. By comparison, Tesla shares are plummeting during Friday's trading session, down more than 11% this year, significantly underperforming the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which have each gained about 22% so far this year .

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Uber shares since the beginning of the year

The hype surrounding Tesla's highly anticipated cybertaxi has largely faded as the company lacks details on the latest technological advances in fully autonomous driving and offers no insight into the strategy or economics of its ride-hailing services, among other investor expectations.

“TSLA's toothless taxi is a best-case outcome for UBER,” Jefferies analyst John Colantuoni said in a note Friday, noting that the electric car maker has offered ambitious goals but little evidence of feasibility.

“TSLA has not presented any verifiable evidence of progress toward L3 autonomous technology, making it difficult to assess the feasibility of the goals outlined at the event as there is no precedent for achieving higher levels of autonomy using a vision-only approach (rather than “(a sensor) merger approach),” Colantuoni said. “We believe this helps minimize UBER stock's ongoing overhang over TSLA's aspirations in the robotaxi space.”

The Jefferies analyst maintained his Buy rating and $100 price target, suggesting an upside of around 28% from Thursday's closing price.

According to Colantuoni, the existence of robotaxis could ultimately expand Uber's total addressable market, as supply expansion would lead to cheaper autonomous vehicle offerings over time, ultimately expanding ride-sharing use cases. Uber is currently the world's largest ride-sharing company.

“We believe AV developers will ultimately choose to work with rideshare providers rather than pursue standalone fleets. We also see that UBER is uniquely positioned in the ride-hailing space to help AV developers support sustainable growth by optimizing logistics, providing fleet management expertise, and assisting with navigation.” local regulations, among other benefits, the Jefferies analyst said.

And while Tesla appears determined to continue developing its robotaxi fleet without partnering with existing ride-sharing platforms, Colantuoni believes the company will eventually have to explore that option.

Tesla “may be underestimating the obstacles to scaling a robotaxi fleet” and could struggle to scale its fleet operations without providing access to demand via Uber and Lyft, he said.

New Tesla Cybertruck vehicles parked at a logistics drop-off zone in Seattle, Washington, USA, on Thursday, August 22, 2024.

M. Scott Brauer | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Bank of America analyst Justin Post also sees the Tesla event as positive for Uber and reiterated his buy rating for the stock on Friday. Longer term, the analyst said increasing competition between Tesla, Googles Waymo and several other AV competitors in California could benefit Uber, as Uber has the potential to work with multiple AV providers. He also speculated that owners of Tesla's cybertaxi might one day integrate their cars into a ride-sharing network like Uber or Lyft.

“While investors are unlikely to see much change in potential competition from Tesla in the long term (more than five years), we knew a CyberCab prototype was coming and the event only lasted 19 minutes and contained fewer concrete details and timelines than for Uber feared,” he said, a note for customers.

Bernstein's Toni Sacconaghi also found that Tesla's event was “disappointing and stunningly lacking in detail,” adding to the positive case for other major AV providers.

Sacconaghi reiterated his above-average valuation of Uber and Lyft's market performance, saying the ride-sharing platforms could benefit from partnering with AV manufacturers and, over time, add value to those that operate fixed fleets.

Lyft shares are down nearly 9% year to date, and less than a third of analysts recommend buying them. Its average price target suggests an upside potential of about 6%, according to FactSet.

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