Small caps are seeing the biggest move on election night as the votes roll in

(Bloomberg) — U.S. stock futures climbed to session highs on Tuesday as surveys closed in key states, with the riskiest parts of the stock market seeing the biggest swings.

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Futures on the small-cap Russell 2000 index rose as much as 3.6% as of 10:02 p.m. in New York before paring the rally to 2.5%. Contracts on the S&P 500 Index rose 1.2%, while futures on the Nasdaq 100 Index rose 1.3%.

Although investors said it was premature to place definitive bets on the election outcome, small caps gained as Republican candidate Donald Trump secured an early lead in the Electoral College over Democrat Kamala Harris. Companies that operate primarily domestically are likely to benefit more from a Trump victory due to his strong protectionist stance.

“Traders have been in and out of the Trump/Harris trade over the past few weeks,” said Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial. “Detente could happen quickly and you don't want to be on the wrong side – better wait for further announcements, especially on Michigan/Pennsylvania.”

The rally in small-cap futures built on intraday gains in the cash index, with the Russell 2000 index up 1.9% in its best session in three weeks. The index is still underperforming the S&P 500 this year.

Here's what Wall Street investors and other market watchers had to say as results continued to come in Tuesday evening in New York.

Keith Lerner, Co-Chief Investment Officer at Truist Advisory Services:

“It is still very early and I expect we will see some strong swings in both directions. However, several betting sites are seeing a steep short-term increase in former President Trump's odds of winning as early voting results are tabulated. As a result, we are seeing some of Trump's perceived trades such as small caps, cryptocurrencies, interest rates and even Trump media currently seeing a boost. Still, we have a long night ahead of us.”

Thomas Martin, senior portfolio manager at Globalt Investments:

“In any case, this is still a jumping ball for the election. Anything can happen. I don't think the small cap rally so far overnight actually has anything to do with betting on a Trump or Harris win, despite what some may argue about their political agenda. Many traders are starting to look beyond the election because they expect that we will get an outcome one way or another sooner rather than later, with the economy still strong on Wall Street, inflation falling and the Fed the Interest rates will cut once again. This still benefits the riskiest areas of the market such as small caps, which have suffered from higher interest rates in recent years.”

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