Surprising Cardinals lead NFC West

The NFL playoff races are heating up.

While the division races in the AFC aren't all that exciting, we're seeing some great races in the NFC. The Washington Commanders and Philadelphia Eagles are separated by half a game in the NFC East, while the entire NFC West is separated by just one game.

Meanwhile, the wildcard races are intriguing on both sides. If the season ended today, the AFC West and NFC North would each send three teams to the postseason.

But what does it all look like? Week 9 is coming to an end? Below we break it all down, including percentages, strength of schedule and more.

Additionally, All playoff probabilities come from The Athletic's model.

#1: Kansas City Chiefs

Record: 7-0, first place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500:6

Playoff probability: 99%

Kansas City plays the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at home on Monday night before hosting the Denver Broncos at Arrowhead Stadium six days later.

#2: Buffalo Bills

Record: 7–2, first place, AFC East

Remaining opponents over .500:2

Playoff probability: 99%

It wasn't pretty, but the Bills defeated the Miami Dolphins to pick up their third division win and a win of the season against Miami. Next up is the Colts in Indianapolis before hosting the Chiefs.

No. 3: Pittsburgh Steelers

Record: 6–2, first place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 5

Playoff probability: 76%

Pittsburgh must be excited about its position atop the AFC North heading into the bye week. However, their final nine games include all six division games as well as games against the Commanders, Eagles and Chiefs.

No. 4: Houston Texans

Record: 6–3, first place, AFC South

Remaining opponents over .500:3

Playoff probability: 95%

While the Texans control their fate in the AFC South, they are struggling. Nico Collins is still out with a hamstring injury, while Stefon Diggs is out for a year with a torn ACL. Factor in an atrocious offensive line, and Houston may need to do some shopping beforehand Trading closes on Tuesday.

No. 5: Baltimore Ravens

Record: 6–3, second place, AFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 93%

Baltimore defeated the Broncos and passed them in the playoffs. However, the Ravens only have a moment to savor the victory as the Cincinnati Bengals come to town on Thursday night.

No. 6: Los Angeles Chargers

Record: 5–3, second place, AFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 83%

The Chargers defeated the Cleveland Brownssacked Jameis Winston six times and grabbed three interceptions. Los Angeles' only quality win is against the Broncos, but for now it's enough for a playoff spot.

No. 7: Denver Broncos

Record: 5-4, third place, AFC West
Remaining opponents over .500: 4
Playoff probability: 34%

Denver looked out of place against Baltimore on Sunday. Now the Broncos must recover before traveling to Kansas City for the first of two meetings against the Chiefs.

On the hunt

Indianapolis Colts (4–5): The Colts played at Minnesota on Sunday night and came up short. Next week it's back to Lucas Oil Stadium against the up-and-coming Bills.

Cincinnati Bengals (4–5): Cincinnati easily handled the Las Vegas Raiders after five touchdown passes from Joe Burrow. However, I have a quick week-long trip to Baltimore coming up.

New York Jets (3–6): The Jets beat the Texans to keep their slim playoff hopes alive, but their schedule isn't easy. New York has a long climb ahead of it.

#1: Detroit Lions

Record: 7-1, first place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 99%

Detroit handled the Packers easily and appeared to be the NFC team to beat. The Lions travel to play the Texans next weekend Football on Sunday evenings.

#2: Washington commanders

Record: 7-2, first place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 93%

Washington didn't need a Hail Mary at MetLife Stadium (who does?) to beat the New York Giants. Philadelphia's win kept the Commanders half a game ahead in the NFC East.

No. 3: Atlanta Falcons

Record: 6-3, first place, NFC South

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 93%

Atlanta is starting to gain distance from the Buccaneers in the NFC South. If Tampa Bay loses on Monday night, the Falcons will have a two-game lead and a win over the Buccaneers in Tampa is already assured.

No. 4: Arizona Cardinals

Record: 5-4, first place, NFC West

Remaining opponents over .500: 1

Playoff probability: 44%

Who could have seen this coming? Arizona leads the NFC West with three straight wins over the Chargers, Dolphins and Bears.

No. 5: Minnesota Vikings

Record: 6-2, second place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500:3

Playoff probability: 80%

Minnesota defeated the Colts in a lopsided affair on Sunday night, breaking its two-game losing streak. The Vikings are just one game behind the Lions in the NFC North.

No. 6: Philadelphia Eagles

Record: 6–2, second place, NFC East

Remaining opponents over .500: 4

Playoff probability: 95%

Philadelphia hasn't been particularly impressive, but it continues to win. The Eagles now travel to Dallas for a big clash with the Cowboys, who are desperate at 3-5.

No. 7: Green Bay Packers

Record: 6–3, third place, NFC North

Remaining opponents over .500:2

Playoff probability: 53%

The Packers had a chance to beat the Lions and advance to the playoffs. Instead, they felt humiliated at home and now find themselves on the bottom rung with a long road ahead of them back to a shot in the NFC North.

On the hunt

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (4–4): Tampa Bay plays the Chiefs on Monday night before returning home to face the 49ers.

Chicago Bears (4–4): It might be time to temper expectations for this Bears team. Chicago was shut out by the Cardinals while allowing seven sacks to a mediocre defensive line.

Los Angeles Rams (4–4): After starting 1-4, the Rams have won three straight and are suddenly looking like a team capable of not only making the playoffs, but making some noise when they get there.