The Caribbean system near Florida has a 40 percent chance of developing over the next 7 days

JACKSONVILLE, Fla. – We are just days away from the final month of hurricane season, which ends November 30th. However, there is a constant threat of a disturbance in the tropics during the first week of November.

Probability of failure

According to the National Hurricane Center, there is currently a disturbance in the southwest Caribbean. There is a 40 percent chance that the system will evolve over the next seven days.

Long-term models have shown that a disturbance could occur, but the direction and location were inconsistent, which is normal for long-term forecasts, particularly for hurricanes and tropical storms.

A depression will slowly continue to develop but will likely become a tropical depression.

Too early to tell, but there is something to think about

Long-term weather models are inconsistent.

However, the commonly used GFS model shows that the disruption continues to organize and falls below 1000MB by the end of the week.

It would then potentially move through the Caribbean Sea towards Cuba and Hispaniola (Haiti and Dominican Republic). It could become a hurricane this weekend.

That could change

The potential long-term forecast calls for the storm to move toward the Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands. It was then able to move northwest toward Florida, but only reached land before moving north along the Gulf Stream.

For now, Florida and Georgia residents need to remember that this observation is likely to change within the next seven days. However, it is a friendly reminder that hurricane season is active and definitely not over yet.