The future of Latin American migration after the US elections

Although Latin America has not been a priority in the campaign for the November 5 election in the United States, the victory of Donald Trump or Kamala Harris could have a dramatic impact on a region from which thousands of migrants are heading to the United States.

Both have promised to toughen immigration measures, one of Americans' biggest concerns, regardless of whether polls show them voting Democrat or Republican.

For Latin Americans fleeing the consequences of climate change, violence, poverty or the collapse of democracy in some countries, the United States still represents the dream of a better life, if not for themselves, then for their children.

A dream that Donald Trump has promised to end. He won the 2016 election focusing on immigration and hopes he can do the same next week. The United States has become “the trash can of the world,” he repeats.

Largest deportation operation in history

The Republican has promised to close the borders, end admission programs like Temporary Protected Status (TPS) that have benefited thousands of Venezuelans, Haitians, Nicaraguans and Cubans over the past two years, abolish birthright citizenship and the to undertake “the largest deportation effort in the history of the United States” with the help of the US military, the National Guard or a new deportation force.

“It is unclear to what extent this would happen, but even if it were half or a third of the promised extent, it would have a dramatic impact on Latin American economies and US relations in the region,” says Benjamin Gedan , director of the Latin America program at the Wilson Center in Washington.

“The region is not well positioned to withstand such an economic shock,” he added. Particularly Central America, where remittances account for more than 30% of GDP in countries like El Salvador and Nicaragua, although Mexico is the world's largest recipient at nearly 3.5% of GDP, according to a recent report from Fitch Ratings.

A deportation campaign like the one Trump is proposing, along with other economic protectionist measures such as imposing tariffs – he mentioned rates of up to 200% on cars – to encourage domestic production, “could lead to a decline in the United States that has cascading effects.” “” about its trading partners in Latin America, adds Gedan.

Mexico will not sell “a single car” to the US, Trump threatened, after it became the US's most important trading partner last year, ahead of China.

Trump has a vision of international relations in which he believes that “the United States should have no friends, only interests,” Eduardo Gamarra, an academic at Florida International University, told AFP.

Strengthen the border

Harris, who worked to address the root causes of migration as vice president in Joe Biden's administration, has also promised action at the border. The Democratic nominee has expressed her intention to push for bipartisan legislation that was supported by moderate Republicans in the Senate but failed due to pressure from Trump.

The bill aimed to strengthen borders, close loopholes in the asylum process, give the president more authority to close border crossings when the number of border crossings is high, and limit the TPS, which allows immigrants to enter the United States temporarily enabled. Illegal border crossings have reached record levels under the Biden-Harris administration, although they have declined in recent months.

Between 2021 and 2023, an average of 2 million migrants entered the United States, mostly through the southern border with Mexico, although 1.1 million were deported last year alone and another 400,000 were deported through June of this year, according to data from USAFacts. Anti-immigration policies would be “faster with Trump and more gradual with Harris,” says José Miguel Cruz, an academic at the University of Florida.

Difficult deterrence

The situation in Latin America, good or bad, “impacts the United States directly and quickly,” Gedan says. “When the region prospers, the United States has great economic partners.”

But the number of people risking their lives to cross the Darién jungle between Colombia and Panama on their way to the United States shows “the desperation of places like Venezuela, Ecuador, Haiti and other parts of the region,” he says Thought.

“It is hard to imagine that any kind of border policy in the United States could stop people from fleeing their homes,” the expert added.