Tropical depression develops into a hurricane and threatens the USA until the weekend

Tropical Depression 18, which is expected to become Tropical Storm Rafael on Monday, is expected to strengthen into the season's next hurricane, reach the Gulf of Mexico and make landfall in the United States next weekend.

AccuWeather has been monitoring the threat since mid-October, long before the National Hurricane Center issued warnings about possible developments. Hurricane experts declared a tropical rain storm on Saturday to alert the public to the seriousness of the situation.

“Directing breezes will direct the nascent tropical storm on a northwesterly track that will take it near Jamaica and the Cayman Islands early this week and then into western Cuba by midweek,” AccuWeather Chief On-Air Meteorologist Bernie Rayno said . “In this zone, water will be sufficiently warm, and disruptive breezes and wind shear will be low.”

As the storm moves north and increases in wind strength midweek, heavy, flooding rains and damaging winds are expected in Jamaica and Cuba. “This storm is expected to make landfall in western Cuba on Wednesday morning as a Category 1 or possibly Category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane wind scale,” said AccuWeather meteorologist Geordan Lewis.

The AccuWeather RealImpact™ hurricane scale is a 1 for Jamaica, Cuba and the Cayman Islands. The RealImpact scale takes into account the extent of rainfall, storm surges, mudslides, flooding and wind, as well as the economic impact on populated areas. The Saffir-Simpson scale only takes into account the wind intensity of the storm. A RealImpact rating for the US will be released later this week

The tropical threat will remain as a Category 1 or 2 hurricane for some time before losing some wind intensity this weekend due to increasingly cooler waters and increasing wind shear as it approaches the central U.S. Gulf Coast.

The storm will be large enough and strong enough to produce rough seas over the Gulf of Mexico, build up surf and trigger beach erosion on the coasts. Some coastal flooding is expected north and east of the storm's track, where winds will push Gulf waters inshore.

The highest chance of landfall is along the central Louisiana coast. However, since steering breezes may change somewhat later this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the southern United States, there is a wide window for where landfall will occur. This potential landfall zone extends from the Florida Panhandle to the upper Texas coast.

Dangerous and damaging impacts will extend outward from the storm center, particularly on its eastern side. People should focus not just on the eye path, but rather on AccuWeather's forecast impact zones, which the team of dozens of meteorologists will study in detail throughout the storm's life cycle.

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Along with the non-tropical storm, the storm will spread a zone of torrential rain and locally severe thunderstorms across portions of the inland south-central and southeastern states as it moves inland.

So much rain could fall in the southern Appalachians to cause flooding and other problems. However, it may not take that much rain to trigger problems in the region, especially where drainage infrastructure and roads have not been fully repaired since Hurricane Helene.

Some rainfall may shape the dry landscape and lead to flooding more easily than if the new tropical storm moved across the region on its own. In the recent flash flood disaster in the southern Appalachians, heavy rains fell a day or two before Helene's arrival.

Any tropical storm or hurricane that becomes a tropical rainstorm can result in excessive rainfall and flooding. While the extent of flooding that occurred across the southern Appalachians from Helene is unlikely to occur in exactly the same area, any location where rain is concentrated and falls heavily over several hours is at risk of significant flooding.

Aside from the threat of flash flooding, which may be concentrated in a small area, the storm could bring much-needed rain and wildfires to a wide area later this weekend or next week. In some cases, the storm duo may bring the first piercing rain in months to parts of the central and eastern states.

Tropical Storm Patty developed over the central Atlantic last weekend and has already transformed into a tropical rain storm as it approaches Portugal and Spain. Gusty winds and heavy rain will hit southwestern Europe until midweek.

AccuWeather meteorologists are watching another area that could produce a tropical depression or storm this week as it approaches the Leeward Islands and moves along the northern Caribbean islands.

Sara is the next name after Rafael on the tropical storm list for the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

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