Tropical Storm Milton has formed in the Gulf of Mexico and is expected to hit Florida as a hurricane

Saturday, October 5, 2024

The National Hurricane Center's 2 p.m. bulletin officially named tropical storm Milton. This is in the southeast corner of the Gulf of Mexico and had winds of at least 40 miles per hour.

With the organization of a central low pressure, there is now a better idea of ​​how it will interact with other atmospheric features and tracks. The expectation continues with previous forecasts for Florida through the middle of next week. At this point we could be a strong hurricane. When it comes to landfilling, there is an intensity range from Category 2 to 4, but there is also a time range for this landfill, and all can play a role in the development… which is still uncertain.

Included in this report is the first chart, satellite imagery, forecast maps/animations, and an interactive wind widget.

Review of the 2024 Atlantic tropical season so far:

Named Storms

• Alberto June 19-20; Peak as a tropical storm
• Beryl June 28th 11; Peaked as a Category 5 hurricane
• Chris June 30th to July 1st; Peak as a tropical storm
• Debby August 3rd to 9th
• Ernesto August 12th to 20th; Peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
• Francine September 9th to 12th; Peaked as a Category 2 hurricane
• Gordon September 11th to 17th; Tropical storm
• Helen September 24th to 27th; Category 4 hurricane. Landfall with winds of 140 mph
• Joyce September 27-30; Tropical storm
• Kirk September 29th to ; Category 4 hurricane: Ocean with winds of 145 mph
• Leslie October 2nd to ; Category 1 hurricane
• Milton October 5th to

Tropical IR satellite loop

Tropical Storm Milton IR satellite

National Hurricane Center update at 2:00 p.m. EDT

LOCATION…22.3N 95.3W

APPROXIMATELY 220 MI…355 KM NE FROM VERACRUZ, MEXICO

ABOUT 365 MI…590 KM W-NW OF PROGRESO MEXICO

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS…40 MPH…65 KM/H

CURRENT MOTION…NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 3 MPH…6 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRINT… 1006 MB… 29.71 INCHES

Visible satellite loop

National Hurricane Center forecast track/cone

Compare this to the following model maps:

Computer model Forecast intensity

The current consensus is that Category 2 intensity may be reached before it hits Florida. There are some model members who are trying to tap into the very warm water and bring it up to Category 4.

Computer model prediction tracks

Windy widget

HWRF model prediction track

Landing suggested by HWRF model

This is the later resolution that occurs after midnight on Wednesday evening.

The stronger side with stronger winds and storm surge would be between Tampa and Fort Myers.

GFS Model Proposed Landing

This is the previous solution on Wednesday morning.

The stronger side with stronger winds and storm surge would be between Tampa and Fort Myers.

Wednesday evening: Crossing Florida and continuing to the Atlantic

This indicates that heavy rainfall will continue in Jacksonville and northeast Florida.

Forecast animation

GFS model today through Sunday evening

Precipitation potential through Friday, October 11th

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SEE ALSO

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REPEATING MY MESSAGE ON THE TOPIC OF LEGEND

I understand that there are some spelling and grammatical errors, as well as occasional other errors. I take responsibility for my mistakes and even the computer errors I may miss. I've made a few public statements over the years, but if you're new here you may have missed it: I have dyslexia and found out about it in my sophomore year at Cornell University. However, that didn't stop me from getting my degree in meteorology and being the first to receive the AMS CBM in the Baltimore/Washington area.

One of my professors told me that I had made it this far without knowing it and that I shouldn't let it be a crutch for the future. That was Mark Wysocki, and he was absolutely right! I miss my mistakes when proofreading myself. The automatic spell checker on my computer sometimes misses the mark and makes the problem worse. I can also make mistakes in forecasting. Nobody is perfect at predicting the future. All maps and information are correct. The “wordy” stuff can get sticky.

There was no editor to review my work when writing and have it ready to ship in a newsworthy time frame. Barbara Werner is a member of the web team that helps me maintain this website. She has made it her mission to correct typos when available. That could be AFTER you read this. I accept that and perhaps prove that what you read is really mine… It's part of my charm. #FITF