Tropical Storm Rafael Path Update, Tracker Issued as Warning to Florida

The 17th named storm of the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season, Tropical Storm Rafael, has formed in the Atlantic Ocean and is expected to strengthen into a hurricane this week.

The storm is expected to reach hurricane intensity as it passes over the Cayman Islands overnight Tuesday before entering the Gulf of Mexico later this week. It could impact the U.S. Gulf Coast, forecasters said.

Maximum sustained winds are currently around 45 mph, the National Hurricane Center said in its update Monday evening. “Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to become a hurricane in the northwestern Caribbean near the Cayman Islands, strengthening before hitting Cuba,” the NHC reported.

Warnings are currently in effect for numerous regions in its path, including a hurricane warning for the Cayman Islands and the Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas and the Isle of Youth. A tropical storm warning is in effect for Jamaica, while a tropical storm warning has been issued for Florida's Key West west of the Channel 5 Bridge.

The most severe impacts are expected in the island nations south of the United States, just off the Gulf of Mexico.

“Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the western Caribbean, with the heaviest rainfall expected to occur over Jamaica and parts of Cuba by midweek. Rainfall totals between 3 and 6 inches, locally up to 9 inches, are expected. Flooding and mudslides could occur in parts of Jamaica and other areas of Cuba,” the update said. “Tropical storm-force winds extend up to 105 miles (165 km) from the center.”

A graphic compiled by AccuWeather shows Rafael will reach maximum sustained winds of 97.5 mph overnight Wednesday into Thursday, when the storm is expected to reach the Gulf and be closer to the U.S. mainland. By Friday morning, as it is expected to approach the U.S., winds will have calmed to 81 mph.

Will Rafael end up in the USA?

Weather models suggest the center of the storm could eventually make landfall between Louisiana and the western edge of the Florida Panhandle, but conditions suggest it will likely weaken significantly in the coming days.

The Weather Channel forecasters said Rafael will likely “experience some level of weakening in the Gulf of Mexico” due to “increasingly unfavorable upper elevation winds, some dry air and cooling Gulf of Mexico waters.”

“It is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael may have on portions of the northern Gulf Coast,” the NHC reports. “Residents in this area should monitor weather forecast updates regularly. Heavy rainfall will spread to Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States by mid to late week.”

Jeff Berardelli, chief meteorologist for Tampa Bay-based WFLA-TV, said on “There will be marginal gusts over the central Gulf, but not much more.”

Hurricane Helene in September and Hurricane Milton in October took similar routes through the Caribbean and strengthened significantly in the Gulf of Mexico before reaching the west coast of Florida. However, Rafael is expected to be a weaker storm moving away from Florida.