Tropical Storm Rafael strengthens into a hurricane. Is Texas standing in his way?

Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane before hitting Cuba on Wednesday.

Afterwards, Rafael will move to the Gulf of Mexico. With current forecasts showing the storm moving toward the northern Gulf Coast, Texas could see some impacts even without landfall.

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A tropical storm warning has been issued for the lower and central Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge, according to the latest update from the National Hurricane Center.

Tropical storms could reach the Gulf Coast on Wednesday. Rainfall of 1 to 3 inches could reach these areas during the middle to later part of the week.

Tropical Storm Rafael: What you need to know

Location: 80 miles south-southwest of Montego Bay, Jamaica
Maximum continuous winds: 60 miles per hour
Movement: Northwest at 13 miles per hour
Pressure: 993MB
Next note: 10 O `clock

How strong is Tropical Storm Rafael and where is it heading?

As of 6 a.m. CST, the center of Tropical Storm Rafael was near latitude 17.4 north and longitude 78.4 west.

Rafael is moving northwest at about 13 miles per hour. Movement generally northwest is expected over the next few days. According to the forecast, the storm is expected to move near Jamaica this morning, near or over the Cayman Islands this evening, and near or over western Cuba on Wednesday.

➤ Tracker, satellite images of Tropical Storm Rafael

Maximum sustained winds will be around 60 mph, with higher gusts.

Steady to rapid intensification is forecast over the next 24 to 36 hours, and Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane in the northwest Caribbean near the Cayman Islands and continue to strengthen before making landfall in Cuba.

Tropical storm force winds extend up to 105 miles from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb.

Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael

Special note on spaghetti models: The figures cover a range of forecasting tools and models, and not all are created equal. The hurricane center only uses the four or five best-performing models in its forecasts.

➤ Spaghetti models for Tropical Storm Rafael

Where will Tropical Storm Rafael make landfall?

“The highest chance of landfall is along the central Louisiana coast,” AccuWeather said.

“However, since steering breezes may change somewhat later this week and this weekend due to the approach of a non-tropical storm from the southern United States, there is a wide window for where landfall will occur.”

“This potential landfall zone extends from the Florida Panhandle to the Texas coast.”

See Impacts of Tropical Storm Rafael Texas

“The good news is that while Rafael could enter the Gulf as a hurricane by midweek, the likelihood of a storm is very low to reach Land like a hurricane,” said Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut is a Florida meteorologist who works with the USA TODAY Network.

Heavy rain is expected in parts of the western Caribbean, including Jamaica and the Cayman Islands. Rafael is expected to strengthen into a hurricane Tuesday evening as it moves northwest into the Gulf of Mexico. Large portions of the Gulf Coast, from Texas to Florida, are also expected to experience heavy rainfall.

Texas and adjacent areas in the southeastern United States may experience impacts from Rafael in the middle to late part of the week. Rainfall amounts of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the lower and central Florida Keys.

Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Tropical Storm Rafael

Rafael is forecast to reach hurricane intensity by tonight as it passes near or over the Cayman Islands, where damaging hurricane-force winds, a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are expected. Rafael was scheduled to reach western Cuba and the Isle of Youth on Wednesday. A hurricane warning is in effect for this region, where a dangerous storm surge and destructive waves are also expected.
Tropical storm conditions are expected in Jamaica through early afternoon. Tropical storm conditions are possible in the lower and central Florida Keys beginning late Wednesday or Wednesday evening.
It is too early to determine what impact, if any, Rafael might have on parts of the northern Gulf Coast. Residents in this area should regularly monitor weather forecast updates.
Rafael will bring areas of heavy rain to parts of the western Caribbean, including the islands of Jamaica and the Caymans, and southern and western parts of Cuba, through early Thursday. Flash floods and mudslides are possible in higher elevations in Jamaica and Cuba. Heavy rainfall will spread north into Florida and adjacent areas of the southeastern United States by mid to late week.

Current forecast: How strong could Tropical Storm Rafael get?

From 4 a.m.: 60 miles per hour
12 hours: 70 miles per hour
24 hours: 80 miles per hour
36 hours: 90 miles per hour
48 hours: 90 miles per hour
60 hours: 90 miles per hour
72 hours: 85 miles per hour
96 hours: 70 miles per hour
120 hours: 50 miles per hour

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When is Atlantic hurricane season?

Hurricane season in the Atlantic is coming to an end June 1st to November 30th.