Trump Media surges to a $10 billion market cap, overtaking X, which has hundreds of millions more users

Thanks to a stock price that soared in the final days before the election, Trump Media and Technology Group (TMTG)'s market capitalization now exceeds that of X, which owner Elon Musk took private in October 2022. At the end of September, TMTG stock was at an all-time low of $12.15. Since then, the stock price has risen 345% as Trump's political chances improved.

Now TMTG has a market cap of about $10.8 billion, compared to X's estimated value of $9.4 billion. X's market capitalization was calculated based on the value of Fidelity's investment reported in disclosure forms filed in September.

Much of the trading on TMTG has been decoupled from its financial performance; Instead, TMTG shares appear to rise and fall with the political direction of the Trump campaign. The discrepancy between stock price and business performance has led to TMTG being called a meme stock. In fact, TMTG's finances are burdened by hundreds of millions in losses and negligible revenue. In the second quarter of this year, sales were just $837,000. In the first half of 2024, the company reported losses of $344 million.

TMTG does not report user metrics, so it is difficult to know exactly how many people are on Truth Social. However, the company's daily active users fell to just under 76,000 earlier this year, according to data from Similarweb. According to a March tally, X now has hundreds of millions of users, at least 250 million per day. However, the exact figures are difficult to determine because X is no longer a listed company.

The conclusion of the election sparked brisk trading activity for TMTG stock. In mid-October, the stock experienced its two biggest trading weeks ever, with 472 million shares changing hands. Many of the buyers appear to be momentum traders looking to bet on the stock's decline and capitalize on it. While this is certainly a legitimate reason to purchase a security, it is not exactly a demonstration of confidence in the underlying fundamentals of the company itself.

Trump and Musk, the owners of Truth Social respectively Musk has been a vocal supporter of Trump throughout the campaign, appearing regularly with him, praising his bravery after the two assassination attempts against him and saying the US is “doomed to fail”. should Trump lose.

TMTG's stock rise coincided with a recent rise in expectations for Trump, the presidential candidate. Despite an extremely close race that appears to be a draw, numerous recent polls showed Trump ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris. Trump is also considered a big favorite on the prediction markets. However, the odds on at least one site – Polymarket – may have shifted due to the betting activity of a few people who have bet millions of dollars on Trump to win. A major bettor in France appears to have bet $45 million on Trump winning the election across four different accounts.

Much of Trump's personal wealth is tied up in his holdings in TMTG. As TMTG's largest individual shareholder, Trump owns about 57% of the company, worth about $6.1 billion. Accordingly, Trump's total net worth is somewhere between $7.5 billion and $10 billion Wall Street Journal.