Trump vs. Harris Poll: Donald Trump or Kamala Harris as US President?: Here is the final prediction from poll guru Nate Silver | World News

Donald Trump and Kamala Harris (Photo credit: Agencies)

Hours before Election Day, poll analyst Nate Silver released its final forecast for the 2024 US presidential election, a forecast that underscores the razor-thin gap between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump. According to Silver's latest model run, conducted just after midnight, Harris is narrowly ahead of Trump in 40,012 out of 80,000 simulations, accounting for 50.015% of possible outcomes. Trump, on the other hand, wins in 39,988 simulations, or 49.985%, a difference that highlights how unpredictable the outcome could be.
Although Harris had a narrow lead, Silver reiterated the unpredictability of the outcome, calling it a “pure mistake.” In this scenario, 39,718 of Trump's victories were outright victories, while the remaining 270 scenarios ended in a 269-269 tie in the Electoral College. In these tie-vote cases, the decision would likely fall to the U.S. House of Representatives, which is currently Republican-leaning, suggesting Trump could still win in such a case.
Close fight in contested states
Silver's forecast takes into account recent election polls that suggest intense competition in states that could decide the election. According to Silver Bulletin, polling averages are highly competitive:

These poll numbers mirror other recent polls, including the NYT/Sienna and Morning Consult polls, which also found Harris and Trump nearly dead in several swing states.
In an accompanying note, Silver Bulletin analyst Eli Mckown-Dawson warned of possible inaccuracies in the polls that could skew the final results. He pointed out that voting errors often affect both candidates and that even a small error can significantly change the result. “If the polls are accurate, we’re in for a nail-biter on Tuesday night,” wrote Mckown-Dawson. However, he warned against overconfidence in the forecasts, especially given the narrow election margin.
Both Trump and Harris made their final appeals on Monday, visiting key states and urging voters to go to the polls. Harris ended her campaign in Philadelphia by rallying before a crowd on the famous “Rocky” steps and demanding an underdog-inspired victory. Trump, meanwhile, held his final rally in Michigan and urged his supporters to “put yourself in a position to win.”
As Election Day approaches, millions of voters are expected to flood polling stations across the country. Given high tensions and concerns about post-election violence, security measures have been tightened, particularly in major cities. Businesses in Washington DC and other locations have taken precautionary measures and boarded up their storefronts in anticipation of possible unrest.