What is the Yiwu Index? China's campaign hat market, which accurately predicted the 2016 US election, makes a shocking prediction

China's Yiwu has the world's largest wholesale market, where business is booming as traders look for cheap products to stock their shelves. However, political analysts are also closely monitoring a phenomenon they call the “Yiwu Index.” Accordingly, a US presidential candidate's chances of winning the next election increase with the success of his replica sales in Yiwu.

Interestingly, the Yiwu Index predicted Donald Trump's victory in 2016 more accurately than pollsters who were convinced that Hillary Clinton would win the election.

Beijing is likely using the theory as it monitors the 2024 elections, expected to take place on November 5, Daily Mail reported.

What is the Yiwu Index?

Political campaigns have always relied heavily on merchandise. While candidates often use their official attire to raise money, foreign retailers have flooded the market with copies of the candidates' wares, taking advantage of the growing divisiveness in American politics.

Yiwu is known for providing early warning of upcoming presidential elections based on the type of goods sold. However, the market is not perfect and there are flaws in relying on the index to predict outcome.

First, the market is largely dependent on wholesalers and rarely sells products directly to customers.

Retailers can typically place bulk orders for certain products during this buying period in anticipation of a surge in demand.

Trump supporters are far more likely to display, wear and purchase merchandise that reflects their political affiliation than supporters of Vice President Kamala Harris or any other candidate.

Although Trump goods made in China sold more than goods bearing the name Joe Biden in 2020, the latter still declared victory.

Yiwu's prediction for the 2024 US elections

Ahead of the 2024 US election, the Yiwu market saw a sharp increase in demand for Harris Roll camouflage campaign hats, which bodes well for Democrats.

According to The Telegraph, the first batch sold out completely within 30 minutes of going on sale.

However, Zoe Liu Zongyuan of the Council on Foreign Relations, a research body based in the United States, warned the source that the rankings may not be accurate.

Zongyuan drew a comparison between someone having a Trump or Harris neighbor, saying Trump voters would be more likely to strut their MAGA stuff.

“Democrats, people who vote independently, or those who are undecided are less likely to spend money to buy these things. So I would say that the Yiwu Index may no longer be an accurate indicator because voter behavior and the way they show their enthusiasm has changed.”

According to the Yiwu theory, Trump's higher sales than his competitors could be a sign of expected voter turnout.

“When everyone said that Democrats, Hilary Clinton, would win (in 2016), the index suggested otherwise,” Zongyuan explained, emphasizing that Americans, diplomats and rally attendees were the ones buying these goods, not the Chinese.