What polls show as Trump holds rallies in New Mexico, Virginia last week

Just days before the election, former President Donald Trump is rallying in New Mexico and Virginia to close gaps in states where he is trailing in recent polls.

In New Mexico, Trump's Halloween rally in Albuquerque marks his second visit since 2019 – when his campaign left with an unpaid city bill of more than $200,000. The rally comes at a time when polls suggest Democrats have a clear lead in the state, making Trump's visit a surprising last-minute move.

A current one Albuquerque Journal The Research & Polling Inc. poll, conducted Oct. 10-18, underscores Trump's uphill battle in New Mexico. Among likely voters, Democratic Vice President Kamala Harris leads Trump by 9 points at 41 percent.

New Mexico Democratic Party spokesman Daniel Garcia dismissed Trump's rally as futile. “Trump is wasting his time in our state, where polls show New Mexicans will once again reject his MAGA extremism and divisive rhetoric,” Garcia said.

Democrats have historically dominated key New Mexico counties, particularly Bernalillo and Santa Fe, while Republicans have stronger bases in the eastern and northwestern regions near Texas and the Four Corners area. Although New Mexico's electoral battles are fiercely contested, poll watchers like Nate Silver and poll aggregator FiveThirtyEight predict Harris will secure the state's five electoral votes.

Virginia presents Trump with another challenge

Virginia presents a similar picture for Trump. Last week, he participated by telephone in an early voting rally hosted by Gov. Glenn Youngkin's PAC in Chesterfield, hoping to mobilize Republican voters before his Nov. 2 appearance in Salem.

“November 5th will be the greatest and most important day in the history of our country,” Trump told Youngkin and rally participants by phone. “We win Virginia, it’s over.”

While he and his opponent, Vice President Kamala Harris, have campaigned heavily in battleground states crucial to victory — such as Pennsylvania, Arizona and North Carolina — Trump insisted that “Virginia is still in play.” But polls tell a different story.

A Washington Post/George Mason University poll from Oct. 19-23 shows Harris leading Trump by six points in Virginia, with Harris at 49 percent and Trump at 43 percent. Virginia, once a GOP stronghold, has shifted blue in presidential elections since 2008, with Trump losing five points to Hillary Clinton in 2016 and more than 10 points to Joe Biden in 2020.

Despite the difficult polls, Trump's campaign remains resolutely focused on Virginia, with Lara Trump, his daughter-in-law and co-chair of the Republican National Committee, underscoring the importance of a victory in the Old Dominion.

“He's here because – let's be honest – we're planning a big red card for November 5th and Virginia is part of it,” she told rally attendees.

Trump's last campaign in Virginia was in Chesapeake on June 28, with a previous rally taking place on March 2 at the Greater Richmond Convention Center.

Harris, who maintains a solid lead in recent polls in Virginia, has not held a rally in the state since winning the party's nomination.