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    What to watch for if a hurricane could hit the Gulf Coast
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    What to watch for if a hurricane could hit the Gulf Coast

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    2 minutes, 56 seconds Read

    Topline

    Tropical Storm Rafael is expected to strengthen Tuesday as it strengthens into a hurricane over the western Caribbean, while later this week the storm will move northwest toward the Gulf Coast, hitting the Florida Keys and other states, forecasters say , that he could be heading towards Mexico.

    Important facts

    According to the National Hurricane Center, a hurricane warning is in effect for the Cayman Islands and parts of Cuba on Tuesday. A tropical storm warning has been issued for Jamaica, other areas of Cuba and the Florida Keys.

    A “life-threatening storm surge” and “destructive waves” caused by Rafael as a Category 1 hurricane are expected in western Cuba on Wednesday, with tropical storms expected to hit the lower and central Florida Keys by Thursday morning.

    Rafael is traveling northwest at a speed of about 13 mph and has sustained maximum winds of up to 60 mph as of 10 a.m. EST as the storm is likely to continue moving toward the central and northern Gulf of Mexico this week, said the agency.

    Conditions were “favorable” for Rafael to gain strength quickly the next day before weakening mid-Gulf of Mexico on Friday, the agency said.

    Despite a forecast suggesting Rafael will impact the Gulf Coast – including states like Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and parts of the Florida Panhandle – the National Hurricane Center said it was “too early to determine” whether that region Will be affected by tropical storm conditions as Rafael appears to be traveling in a “westerly motion” toward Mexico.

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    When is the next forecast?

    The National Hurricane Center updates tropical storm and hurricane forecasts every six hours. An updated forecast is expected at 4:00 p.m. EST.

    Big number

    17. That's the number of named storms observed in the Atlantic this hurricane season, including Tropical Storm Rafael, according to the National Hurricane Center. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has predicted up to 13 hurricanes and between 17 and 25 named storms, the most ever forecast by the agency.

    Important background

    Meteorologists issued a warning earlier this year that the Atlantic hurricane season could reach a “record pace.” Hurricane Helene hit the US last month, claiming hundreds of lives in North Carolina, South Carolina, Georgia, Tennessee, Florida and Georgia. NOAA said last month that there is a 60% chance of La Niña forming in the U.S. in November and lasting through March. This marks a new climate pattern that often results in more intense hurricane seasons in the Atlantic Ocean. During a La Niña, the area of ​​low vertical wind shear in the Atlantic expands, increasing the number of hurricanes that form while allowing stronger storms to form. AccuWeather forecasters said an increase in storm activity was also likely caused by above-average sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic, particularly in the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico and the tropics where hurricanes regularly form. Higher temperatures could lead to a phenomenon known as rapid intensification, when storms experience a sudden increase in wind speed.

    Further reading

    ForbesLa Niña is likely to impact US weather this winter – here's what to expectFrom Ty RoushForbes'Explosive' 2024 Atlantic hurricane season could set record, forecasters warn: Here's whyFrom Brian Bushard

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