When might we next see rain?

The lack of rainfall has led to dry conditions not seen since 2022. Boston has recorded just a measly 2.30 inches of rain since September 1, making it the region's second driest fall to date. October ends about 3 inches below the monthly average and delivers only five days of measurable precipitation in the Boston area, with the heaviest rainy day being just 0.4 inches.

“The changes in Boston this week show that the drought is getting worse,” said Brian Fuchs, a climatologist at the National Drought Mitigation Center. “People can help alleviate problems by conserving water in their daily lives and treating the drought as if it will last for a while.”

This latest update means nearly 15 percent of the state is in severe drought, while more than 70 percent of the state has reached moderate drought (a Stage 1 drought) – a 17 percent increase from last week. The rest of New England is experiencing what the Drought Monitor calls “unusually dry” conditions, although northern Maine is experiencing moderate drought.

This fall has been brutal in terms of lack of precipitation and most of New England is on the verge of one of the three driest autumns on record. Boston is more than 5 inches behind its fall average (from September 1 through the end of October). Check out current season rainfall rankings for many major areas of New England below.

A severe level 2 drought means the risk of fire remains very high. According to the Mass. Bureau of Forest Fire Control. Department of Conservation and Recreation, the extremely parched soil combined with the dead, crunchy fallen leaves has helped fuel large wildfires and smaller wildfires that have already destroyed about 450 acres in Massachusetts in the last week and forestry. Earlier this month, a firefighter died while battling the Hawthorne wildfire in central Connecticut. The 100-acre fire was still under control Thursday.

Even in a severe drought, most watercourses have declined to 20 percent or less of normal volume, and groundwater levels could become a problem. Fortunately, since the harvest is already over, crop failures due to the looming drought are unlikely to be a major problem.

Boston and most of New England have had a large surplus of groundwater since the very wet year of 2023 and the first five months of 2024 – but most of that surplus has been erased. Rainfall totals in Boston have dropped to an excess of 0.88 inches since the start of the year, drawing more than half a foot of groundwater from spring water.

A persistent high-pressure pattern has kept the rain away, or at least helped contain storms near New England – moving dry air into low-pressure areas to reduce the amount of precipitation in our region.

High pressure is expected to persist southeast of New England through the next week. This high will continue to engulf storms as they approach the region. This could well limit the amount of water coming to the surface in the coming week. NOAA's Climate Prediction Center predicts this pattern will continue over the next 6 to 10 days.

Adam Allgood, a meteorologist at NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, said the prospects for an end to this drought in New England are slim.

“There will be chances of precipitation over the next few weeks, but not enough to get us out of the hole,” Allgood said. Our window of opportunity to receive meaningful help is short. He said: “November is typically a good time to recharge groundwater before the ground freezes in the winter months.” Unfortunately, at this stage it looks like November will start off dry.

Jennifer Francis, a senior scientist at the Woodwell Climate Research Center, said most of the country experienced dry conditions, except for areas in the path of Hurricanes Helene and Milton. As our climate changes, we fall into persistent patterns – the same weather pattern in one place for several days. For example, a consistently warmer atmosphere reduces the variability in our weather patterns, including storm tracks.

“The frequency of persistent patterns increases over time, especially when the Arctic is warm,” said Francis, whose research looks at patterns in which the jet stream stays in place for four or more days.

Wet patterns can also occur during these sustained periods. Francis calls the alternation between dry and wet weather patterns “weather whiplash.” Francis said: “Climate models show a much greater increase in whiplash patterns.” The consequences could be that drought areas could then quickly face flooding.

As the planet warms, the growing season also becomes longer. David Boutt, a professor of hydrogeology at the University of Massachusetts, said a longer growing season brings new challenges. “As we lengthen the growing season due to climate change, this changes the water balance, making us more vulnerable to rapid dry spells,” Boutt said.

Essentially, a longer growing season means plants need more water. If the region remains dry during the extended growing season, drought is more likely. To make matters worse, higher temperatures also increase evaporation rates from soils, rivers and reservoirs, depleting water supplies more quickly and leaving less water available for agriculture, ecosystems and human use.

Chris Gloninger, A Globe correspondent contributed to this report.

Ken Mahan can be reached at [email protected]. Follow him on Instagram @kenmahantheweatherman.