Who will win the US election? Final predictions, election day polls

Polls and forecasts show there will be a close contest between Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump when voters go to the polls on Election Day.

Both candidates made their final submissions Monday to voters in swing states that will decide a historic election regardless of which candidate prevails.

Harris would be the first woman, the first Black woman and the first person of South Asian descent to be elected president if she defeats Trump. If Trump wins, he would be the first new president to be charged and convicted of a crime and the second president in history to win non-consecutive terms in the White House.

Harris spent Monday campaigning in Pennsylvania – his 19 electoral votes make him the biggest prize among the battleground states that will determine the Electoral College winner. Trump held rallies in North Carolina and Pennsylvania before ending his campaign with a rally in Grand Rapids, Michigan, on Monday evening.

Here, Newsweek summarizes what the latest polls and forecasts say about their chances of winning the White House.

POLLS

New York Times/Siena College

The finale New York Times/A Siena College poll for the 2024 election cycle found Harris narrowly ahead in the battleground states of Nevada, North Carolina and Wisconsin. Trump is ahead in Arizona, while tight races are in Michigan, Georgia and Pennsylvania.

The poll surveyed 7,879 likely voters in the seven states from Oct. 24 to Nov. 2 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.5 percentage points.

ABC News/Ipsos

In the latest ABC News/Ipsos poll released on Sunday, Harris was narrowly ahead of Trump – 49 percent to 46 percent.

The poll surveyed 2,267 likely voters between Oct. 29 and Nov. 1 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

TIP Insights

Trump had a very narrow lead in a TIPP Insights poll released Sunday – 49 percent to Harris' 48 percent.

The poll surveyed 1,305 likely voters between October 31 and November. The error rate was plus/minus 2.9 percentage points. TIPP Insights was rated by the pollster as the most accurate The Washington Post in 2020.

Emerson College Survey

In the latest Emerson College Polling poll, Trump and Harris were tied at 49 percent each.

The poll was conducted between Oct. 30 and Nov. 2 among 1,000 likely voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.

FORECAST

Thirty-five

FiveThirtyEight's forecasting model predicts a close fight between Trump and Harris.

According to FiveThirtyEight's election simulations, Trump will win 53 times out of 100 on Sunday, while Harris will win 46 times out of 100.

The model predicts, as of November 2, that Trump will receive 275 votes in the Electoral College, while Harris will receive 268 votes.

Decision Office Headquarters

The forecast from Decision Desk HQ and The Hill's, updated Sunday, puts Trump at a 54 percent chance of winning the election and Harris at a 46 percent chance. The forecast assumes Trump will receive 277 votes in the Electoral College, while Harris will receive 261 votes.

“Trump remains a slight favorite to win the 2024 election, even if the result is effectively a failure,” said an Oct. 28 analysis from Decision Desk HQ. “Neither candidate is clearly favored in enough states to secure the required 270 electoral votes,” with Trump currently at 235 and Harris at 226.”

Really clear poll

Real Clear Polling's “no toss-up” map predicts Trump will triumph in the Electoral College, with 287 votes for Trump versus 251 votes for Harris.

The model predicts Trump will break through the “blue wall” and capture battleground Pennsylvania as well as Arizona, Georgia, Nevada and North Carolina. Harris is expected to lead Michigan and Wisconsin.

Silver Bulletin

Statistician Nate Silver's model also suggests that Trump will win the Electoral College.

According to a Substack post on Monday, the former president has a 52.6 percent chance of winning the Electoral College, while Harris has a 47 percent chance. However, Harris is found to be more likely to win the popular vote – with a 74.2 percent chance compared to 25.8 percent for Trump.

The model gives Trump a higher chance of winning Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina and Pennsylvania and Harris a higher chance of winning Michigan and Wisconsin.

The Economist

The Economist forecast model, updated on Monday, assumes that Harris and Trump have equal chances of winning the election. Both are expected to win 50 out of 100 times.