Why Kamala Harris lost – and why it wasn't close

It's happened again: Democrats lost a victorious election to a racist, orange makeup-wearing carnival barker, despite his vileness, immorality and rampant corruption. This time, Donald Trump ran his campaign with an even darker agenda — mass deportation of migrants, calling for more violent policing and demanding retaliation against his enemies — and he didn't have to try to steal the election in court or via a violent coup . He appears to be ahead in battleground states and is likely to win the popular vote outright, something a Republican hasn't done in two decades.

There are many factors that could explain why Vice President Kamala Harris lost — and why the race ultimately wasn't so close: Joe Biden's crushing unpopularity; pervasive sexism, racism and xenophobia; an American culture that stupidly valorizes the super-rich and licks their bootstraps. There was the Harris campaign's decision to run a safe, staid campaign, in keeping with the Democrats' favorite failed plan: Be like Republicans. There was her refusal to break away from Biden because he supported Israel's war in Gaza – a bloodbath that plays out on our screens every day and that particularly affects young people.

But the most likely explanation for why Harris lost is the simplest: Americans are deeply dissatisfied with a brutal economy.

After Washington ended Covid-era pandemic relief programs, Americans endured two years of soaring inflation that, in addition to higher interest rates, impacted the prices of almost everything — driving up credit card interest, mortgage interest and the cost of auto loans drifted, and more. Amid a severe cost-of-living crisis, voters have now punished the Democrats.

Election polls and other survey results from the 2024 election make it incredibly clear that this contest, as so often, was about the economy, was stupid.

Exit polls from Edison Research show that two-thirds of voters believe the state of the American economy is bad or not so good; 69 percent of them voted for Trump. When asked what the most important issue was when they voted, 31 percent of voters said the economy, and 79 percent of those voters supported Trump.

The Fox News Voter Analysis poll results provide similar results: 63 percent of respondents said the economy is bad or not so good, and 68 percent of them said they support Trump. Of the 39 percent of respondents who said the economy and jobs are the country's most important issues, 60 percent said they support Trump.

Likewise, 40 percent of respondents said the most important factor in their vote was the high prices of gasoline, food and other goods; 64 percent of them said they supported Trump.

There are good reasons to doubt that Trump's 2025 agenda will financially benefit the average American. His plan to impose sweeping tariffs on imported goods will raise prices for consumers. His plan to maintain his tax cuts for the rich and further reduce corporate taxes will surely once again benefit the wealthiest Americans. Trump has promised to give the world's richest man, Elon Musk, a leadership role in the government.

But Americans angry about the economy notably did not vote for Trump's economic agenda. They simply expressed their disapproval of today's economic situation.

This election cycle, the prevailing sentiment among some Democrats and the broader pundit class is that Americans are wrong to believe the economy is bad – in fact, it's great, why the gloom? Maybe people are misremembering their own financial situation during the Trump era? Don't people know that inflation has finally slowed? Have you seen these GDP growth charts?

At the start of the pandemic, the U.S. Census Bureau began asking Americans questions about the state of their households — including whether it is difficult to pay typical household expenses. When Trump lost in 2020, the share of Americans who said it was difficult to pay their bills was around 34 percent. That number rose until Congress passed new pandemic relief programs and then fell significantly. As those aid programs expired, the percentage of Americans struggling to pay their bills rose — and Biden's approval ratings fell.

The end of pandemic relief, coupled with inflationary price increases and higher interest rates, led to a financial catastrophe that has not yet ended. In September, 37 percent of Americans reported having difficulty paying their typical household expenses, a slight increase from earlier in the year.

This brutal financial reality created a brutal political environment for Democrats in 2024 and helped deliver a decisive blow to Republicans.