Why tomorrow's initial Trump-Harris vote count results could be misleading

Topline

Votes cast on Election Day tend to favor Republicans, while Democrats are historically favored in early voting, leading to blue and red “mirages” depending on which types of votes each state counts first – a major factor in the 2020 election campaign. which could emerge again on Tuesday, although it may be less noticeable this time.

Former President Donald Trump speaks during a campaign rally at McCamish Pavilion in Atlanta. … (+) Georgia, October 28, 2024. (Photo by CHRISTIAN MONTERROSA/AFP via Getty Images)

AFP via Getty Images

Important facts

The “red mirage” refers to the total number of early votes cast in favor of Republicans, as ballots cast in person on Election Day are counted, while a “blue shift” occurs when absentee and provisional ballots are counted together (since Democrats traditionally vote more often by mail). vote as Republicans). ).

Conversely, some states are now counting their mail-in ballots first, potentially leading to a “blue mirage” early in the night in states like Georgia, followed by a “red shift” as GOP supporters' in-person votes are added to the total.

The “red mirage” phenomenon was identified in a 2020 study by data firm Hawkfish, funded by former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, which correctly predicted that then-President Donald Trump could win the race at the end of Election Day. but Joe Biden could end up coming out on top.

Edward Foley, an election law expert at Ohio State University, coined the term “blue shift” after the 2012 election and reported in a 2019 paper that in the previous four presidential elections, the Democratic candidate received at least 22,000 votes after Election Day .

In addition to more Democrats casting mail-in ballots, the blue shift is also fueled by election reforms after 2000 that made it easier for voters who had problems with their registration to cast provisional ballots, a scenario that more often affects people who lean Democratic are, for example, lower-income voters and students, the New York Times reported.

More densely populated urban areas that favor Democrats tend to take longer to calculate vote totals than in smaller rural counties where Republicans predominate, which can also skew initial results.

In 2016, for example, Hillary Clinton ended up winning the popular vote, but at the time she conceded (after Trump had reached the 270 electoral vote threshold to win the election), Trump was also ahead in the raw vote count nationwide .

According to an analysis by the Massachusetts Institute of Technology Election Lab, the “blue shift” in 2020 was similar to that in 2016, finding that counties where Biden won had ballots counted slower on average than counties where in which Trump won, resulting in Biden gaining one point in votes counted after the Thursday after the election, almost identical to Clinton's net gain in 2016.

Cons

The blue and red mirages are likely to be less pronounced this year because fewer voters cast absentee ballots and more Republicans vote early compared to 2020. Several states have also updated their vote processing rules since pandemic-hit 2020, which may have led to faster counts.

Which swing states could have red mirages (and blue shifts)?

Wisconsin: Local election officials are not allowed to begin processing mail-in ballots until Election Day, a rule that has caused some delays in previous elections, particularly in larger cities like Milwaukee. If smaller, redder rural counties count quickly while deep blue Milwaukee takes a while to release its numbers, we could see a red mirage at first.

Michigan: Unlike 2020, local officials now have more time to process mail-in ballots, potentially resulting in fewer delays and a less severe red mirage. But the advocacy group Protect Democracy believes a small red mirage is possible if smaller, redder counties report results ahead of large blue counties like Wayne.

Nevada: Most of the state's population lives in Democratic-leaning Clark County, which could take longer to count mail-in ballots than the rest of the state, potentially leading to a red mirage and a blue shift, Protect Democracy notes. The state is allowing mail-in ballots after Election Day as long as they are postmarked by Tuesday, meaning more mail-in votes could be added to the total each day.

Which swing states can have blue mirages (followed by red shifts)?

Georgia: The state allowed counties to begin processing mail-in ballots weeks ago and requires them to report most mail-in ballots and initial counts an hour after polls close — potentially giving Democrats an early head start before the votes be tackled by GOP supporters on Election Day. However, Georgia counts quickly, so any blue mirage will be short-lived.

North Carolina: This state is also counting votes quickly and is expected to report mail-in ballots first, potentially leading to a brief blue mirage.

Arizona: The state will first report many of its earliest mail-in ballots before counting votes on Election Day, potentially leading to a blue mirage. Officials then return to verify and count “later earlier,” or mail-in ballots received on or near Election Day, which can take days.

Will there be a blue or red mirage in Pennsylvania?

This must-win state could experience an early blue mirage when a first round of mail-in ballots are reported, but a red mirage could emerge next when votes are counted on Election Day. Because county officials can't begin processing mail-in ballots until the morning of Election Day, counting all the final mail-in ballots could take a while, meaning there could be a blue shift in the days after Tuesday. The state had a very pronounced blue shift in 2020, but the count is expected to be faster this year, Protect Democracy notes.

What we don't know

How long will it take for the election to be called? In such a close election, with polls showing Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris within two points of each other in all seven contests, the race may not be played on Election Day. Federal law requires states to complete recounts and resolve any disputes over the results by Dec. 11. There are some reasons to believe results will be counted faster this year than in 2020, including record-breaking in-person early voting totals in several states. and fewer mail-in ballots than in the previous election held during the COVID-19 pandemic, which resulted in more voters casting their ballots by mail. Some states, like Michigan, have also changed their laws since 2020 to allow mail-in ballots to be counted before Election Day, while others have tightened restrictions, including North Carolina, which passed a new law last year requiring officials to to wait until 7:30 a.m. — after polls close — to begin tabulating results, rather than doing so in real time.

Important background

Trump used the “red mirage” to claim that there was voter fraud in the 2020 election and insisted that only votes counted on Election Day were valid. At 2 a.m. on election night, with at least a half-dozen battleground states still uncalled, he prematurely claimed victory in 2020, declaring, “We want all voters to stop.” . We don't want them to find ballots at 4 a.m. and add them to the list.” The election was called for Biden on November 7th after his victory in Pennsylvania gave him the majority of 270 electoral votes required to win. However, Georgia and North Carolina were not scheduled until November 19th and 13th, respectively. To forestall a loss, Trump claimed without evidence during his 2020 campaign that mail-in ballots were vulnerable to fraud – a narrative he largely dropped during his last campaign and encouraged his supporters to vote any way they could.

tangent

Trump also claimed without evidence during the 2018 midterms that the shrinking leads of Sen. Rick Scott, R-Fla., and Gov. Ron DeSantis — both of whom ultimately won their elections, though by narrower margins than on the first day of voting — were due to ” “Large numbers of new ballots” had “popped up out of nowhere,” he tweeted, adding: “Must go along with election night!”

What you should pay attention to

Trump has repeatedly suggested he won't accept the results if he loses, insisting Democrats can't win unless they “cheat.” Trump is laying the groundwork for challenging the results by falsely claiming that Democrats would grant voting rights to undocumented immigrants and that his legal battles, Harris' replacement of Biden at the top of the ballot and negative media coverage of his campaign all amounted to voter fraud . On Tuesday, he also made claims on his Truth Social account that Lancaster County received “THUSANDS OF potentially FRAUDULENT voter registration forms and absentee ballot applications from a third-party group.” . . in addition to Lancaster County being caught with 2,600 fraudulent ballots and forms, all written by the same person.” Lancaster County officials said they examined about 2,500 applications from voter recruitment centers across the county and reported that about 60% appeared to be fraudulent and provided false addresses, false names and personal identification information, and addresses that did not match social security information. Officials said two other districts were also investigating application irregularities.

Big number

More than 15.2 million. That many Democrats cast early ballots by Nov. 4 this year, compared with about 14.5 million Republicans, according to Florida Election Lab data for states that track the party affiliation of early voters. The numbers show that a larger share of Republicans appear to be voting earlier this year than in 2020.