Will Israeli attacks on Iranian military targets lead to further conflict?

Last night an Israeli fear barrier was broken. Given the complicated dynamics in the Middle East, a second round of Israeli attacks in Iran appears increasingly likely. Missiles, missiles and UAVs – either Iranian-made or Iranian-financed – are fired against Israel's home front almost daily.

The crucial question now is: What was the purpose of this attack at this particular moment, with the IDF operating on two fronts – Gaza and Lebanon? Was it intended to reduce the Iranian military's production capacity and disable launch systems? Or was it aimed at sending a deterrent message and shortening the cycle of retaliation?

Iran's response will soon clarify the situation. If Tehran's response is limited to rhetoric encouraging the “Axis of Evil” to ally itself in Lebanon and Gaza, it could be a signal that the political decision and military action have achieved Israel's goals. However, if Iran retaliates directly or through proxies in Yemen, Syria, Iraq or Lebanon, it could mean that Tehran perceives Israeli airstrikes as weak and indecisive. However, such a perception highlights an important point.

A key takeaway from this strike is a sense of weakness in America. If the Israeli Air Force undertakes further attacks on Iran, they will likely be different as Iran's defensive and offensive capabilities have been reduced, limiting the threat to Israeli aircraft.

This raises a key dilemma: what should be the next goal? More attacks on military sites similar to those attacked last night? Oil infrastructure? The nuclear project?

Explosions in Tehran due to Israeli retaliation, October 26, 2024. (Source: SCREENSHOT/X, SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT LAW)

No containment by the USA

Last night's attack in Iran – and the most recent one in Yemen – illustrate America's weakness. Middle Eastern nations and the world are watching Israel as it issues threats, warnings and ultimately takes action.

Meanwhile, the United States appears weakened in its response to emerging threats and is trying to deter Israel's political and military leaders from taking more decisive action. This perception ultimately strengthens Israel's position, particularly vis-à-vis Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates.

Undeniable evidence of the damage in Iran will emerge in the coming days, even as Tehran seeks to downplay the extent of the air force's success. Was “the king” exposed or was this operation a strategic move designed to prevent a wider escalation?

Will Israeli attacks on Iranian military targets lead to further conflict?

Explosions in Tehran due to Israeli retaliation, October 26, 2024. (Source: SCREENSHOT/X, SECTION 27A COPYRIGHT LAW)

No containment by the USA

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