Will rain and storms play a role in swing states on Election Day 2024?

A man with an umbrella arrives at a polling station on Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2022, in Pacoima, Calif. (AP Photo/Ringo HW Chiu)

As recovery continues from the southern Appalachians to Florida from deadly and destructive hurricanes Helene and Milton, weather conditions in these areas and across much of the United States will be favorable for Election Day 2024. However, AccuWeather meteorologists are raising alarm about unfavorable conditions that could turn off some voters in the middle of the country, including in some key swing states.

“The majority of voters are very engaged and will find a way to go to the polls unless there is extreme weather such as a heavy snowstorm, torrential rain or severe thunderstorms,” said Senior Vice President of AccuWeather and President of State College , Pennsylvania Councilman Evan Myers said.

The area that will experience heavy rains, thunderstorms and downpours causing localized flash flooding on Election Day will depend on the path, speed and intensity of a dual-track storm and a trailing cold front. This duo of storms will cross portions of the Rocky Mountains, Plains, Mississippi Valley, and Upper Midwest.

While heavy snowfall is expected to ease in parts of the Rockies Monday night into Tuesday morning, parts of the Plains and Mississippi Valley will see locally heavy rain and thunderstorms for most of next Tuesday.

This complex storm system is different from the weather impacting the middle of the country this week. Nevertheless, both are signs of a change from unusually dry to drought conditions, which have been intensifying since the summer.

“Part of the rain-predominant storm duo will likely exit the Upper Midwest by Tuesday morning,” said Paul Pastelok, AccuWeather's senior long-range meteorologist from the southern Rockies to the Plains and Mississippi Valley later Tuesday.

Pastelok explained that the speed and location of disruptive weather from both storms is not yet set in stone and may depend on other weather scenarios, such as tropical activity in the Caribbean and the speed of an approaching storm in the northwest.

For now, the zone from Texas, Louisiana and Mississippi north to Illinois and the presidential transition states of Michigan and Wisconsin are most likely to feel the storm's greatest impact.

Some counties may be drenched in rain for several hours on Election Day. People who may have to wait in long lines outdoors should be prepared for the wet weather with waterproof shoes and umbrellas, if not full waterproofs.

In addition to the intensity of the rain, which could trigger localized flash flooding and block some roads in part of the 1,500-mile-long zone, some of the thunderstorms from the mid-Mississippi Valley to the Gulf Coast could be intense and extremely disruptive and potentially dangerous, Pastelok advised.

“Any thunderstorm presents the possibility of lightning strikes nearby, which could trigger sporadic power outages and endanger people waiting outside,” Pastelok said. “They may have waited for hours and sought shelter.”

The timing of thunderstorms from place to place will be crucial, and it will be important for people going to the polls in the risk zone to closely monitor the weather situation. One part of the day may be drier than the other.

Get the free Accuweather app

There is also the possibility of a secondary precipitation area developing on the cold side of the storm from eastern Colorado to Minnesota. This could happen if the second storm is much stronger and moving quickly. As this zone develops, some precipitation may fall as snow rather than rain. The same storm may produce significant snowfall in the Denver area overnight Monday, just before Election Day.

If it hasn't rained for a long time, even a small amount of moisture on the road can make the road particularly slippery for drivers due to the remaining oil residue.

(Image credit: Elijah Nouvelage/Getty Images)

AccuWeather meteorologists are also tracking a storm from the Pacific that will arrive early next week. Its progress could determine whether the rain arrives in western Washington and Oregon or drains and spreads further inland across the Northwest. This storm will likely bring high elevation snow to the Cascades.

On the bright side, “voting in Washington is by mail and should not be affected by the weather,” Myers said.

Depending on the forward speed and spread of the storm system, some rain could move into parts of the interior Northeast, including Pennsylvania – another key swing state and potential presidential vote-maker in this election.

Additionally, 34 of the 100 U.S. Senate seats are up for grabs in this election, and at least a dozen in the central states could be affected by rain or thunderstorms on November 5th.

No rain or snow is forecast for the swing states of North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada.

“In areas of western North Carolina where temporary or alternative polling locations exist due to the devastation, people should not have to contend with adverse weather conditions on Election Day,” Pastelok said.

“At least 75% of the lower 48 states will be dry on Election Day, including heavily populated areas along the Interstate 95 corridor to the east and west, including California and Arizona,” AccuWeather senior meteorologist Brett Anderson said.

It remains to be seen whether the upcoming weather conditions in the middle of the country will be adverse enough to deter some voters from voting and potentially influence the election.

Do you want security at the highest level, without ads? Unlock enhanced, hyperlocal severe weather alerts when you subscribe to Premium+ in the AccuWeather app. AccuWeather Alerts™ are triggered by our experienced meteorologists who monitor and analyze dangerous weather risks around the clock to keep you and your family safer.