Winter Weather Outlook: La Nina is expected to appear in the 2024-25 season

NEW YORK – Winter will come before we know it, and the emergence of a La Niña weather pattern could impact the type of winter weather conditions we see across the United States

NOAA's Climate Prediction Center (CPC) released its official winter outlook for 2024-25 on Thursday, breaking down various temperature and precipitation trends for the upcoming season as well as expected changes in drought conditions across the country.

CPC forecasters still expect a La Niña to develop in the fall and play a role in temperature and precipitation trends across the country. However, the developing La Niña will likely be weak and short-lived, forecasters said.

In general, a La Niña pattern means wetter, cooler weather for the northern tier of the U.S. and warmer, drier weather for the southern tier. This appears to be consistent with CPC forecasters' predictions for the winter.

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Temperature outlook

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The winter weather outlook favors above-average temperatures for most of the U.S., from the southwest to the east, including most of the central U.S., as well as all of the eastern U.S. from the southeast across the mid-Atlantic to the northeast and New England.

“We have some warmer temperatures that will still be a factor in the south, but maybe not as much as you get into the northern part of the Great Lakes,” said FOX weather meteorologist Bob Van Dillen. “Because we think” this is the La Niña that will develop, it will be a little weaker and a little shorter-lived.

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The Gulf of Mexico is also expected to remain warm.

“This will keep your temperatures warm along the entire Gulf Coast, including to the Atlantic side of Florida,” Van Dillen continued.

The CPC said there is also a chance of above-average temperatures for northern Alaska, while below-average temperatures are likely for southern parts of the state.

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Precipitation outlook

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The CPC's seasonal precipitation outlook shows an increased likelihood of below-average precipitation along most of the Southern Plains from the Southwest through the Southern Plains, along the Gulf Coast into the Southeast.

“This winter, an emerging La Niña is expected to impact upcoming winter patterns, particularly our precipitation forecasts,” said Jon Gottschalck, head of the Climate Prediction Center’s operational forecast division.

The CPC said parts of southeastern Alaska and the Alaska Panhandle could experience below-average precipitation amounts this winter.

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However, the CPC said the greatest chance of below-average rainfall is expected in the southwest and southern plains.

Above-average precipitation is expected this winter in parts of the Pacific Northwest, the northern Rockies, parts of the Great Lakes region, and western and northern Alaska.

“In addition, major cities in the Northeast will likely see average snowfall or less again,” Van Dillen said. “So probably most likely further down. So if you want a big snowfall blockbuster in New York City, go back to 1995 to 1996. That was a weak La Niña.”

The Farmers Almanac's winter outlook calls for “ample amounts of snow, rain, sleet and ice.”

Drought prospects

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Drought conditions in the US will also be a concern until at least the end of January. The Chinese Communist Party (CPC) has classified large parts of the country's southern region as suffering from a prolonged or even worsening drought.

Drought is likely to continue across much of the country from the Southwest to the Plains to the Deep South and parts of the Great Lakes region.

The CPC said it expects drought to develop in additional areas of the Southwest, such as the Four Corners region, as well as parts of the Southeast.