With tight races this Election Day, it will likely be weeks before Alaska knows the results

It will take some time for election results in Alaska to come in after Election Day.

Although officials will begin releasing first-round results shortly after polls close at 8 p.m. Tuesday, Alaskans will know only so much on election night amid a close election. In any race where no candidate receives 50% of the vote, victory celebrations must wait until at least November 20th.

This is in part because the state has a long deadline for receiving mail-in ballots after Election Day. Although they must be postmarked by Election Day, mail-in ballots can arrive from the U.S. up to 10 days after Election Day, or up to 15 days after Election Day if mailed from outside the U.S., said Brian Jackson, the election program manager for Alaska Department of Elections. This is one of the reasons why the counts reported on election night only include a portion of the votes cast in the election.

“Of course we count the election day votes on election day. (In addition), election night counts will include early voting ballots cast through Halloween, … as well as some mail-in ballots,” Jackson said.

The exact deadline for counting mail-in ballots on Election Day varies by region, Jackson said. It depends on how busy the regional election office is. But in any case, there will be a significant number of votes that have not been counted.

These can make up a significant portion of the total. In 2022, according to the final report, around 60,000 votes were counted on election evening. That’s almost a quarter – 22.7% – of all votes cast in this election.

And while those who are ahead on election night often maintain their lead after all the ballots are counted, that's not always the case.

Let's look again at 2022: At 1 a.m. after election day, Kelly Tshibaka had a lead of around 3,000 votes in the primary election. By the time all votes were counted two weeks later, Lisa Murkowski was ahead with around 2,000 first votes.

(In this race, it didn't matter who was in first place. Both made it to the final round of ranked-choice voting, where Murkowski ultimately won. But it turns out: votes counted after Election Day can produce a result lead to significant difference.)

This also applies to the order in which voters order their decisions. Everything reported on Election Day – and counts seven and 10 days after Election Day – are first-choice votes.

If the gap between second and third place or third and fourth place is close, a small number of votes can make the difference. So, Jackson said, election officials are conducting ranked choice voting on one day, Nov. 20, to “include as many countable ballots as possible.”

There's not much the elections department can do to speed up the process, Jackson said. With a change in state rules, the department could tabulate ranked-choice voting more frequently, but ultimately the deadlines for receiving mail-in ballots are set by state law.

“It would take legislation to change this and make it faster,” he said.

All in all: Voters should expect the first results “somewhere around” 8:30 or 9 p.m., Jackson said. The Division of Elections expects to release updated counts every 30 to 40 minutes thereafter until about 11 p.m., when updates slow down as officials wait for the state's rural hand-counting counties to submit their votes, he said.

“Our goal is to try to get 100% of precincts reported,” Jackson said on election night.

Jackson also emphasized that the state's vote-counting process includes a number of safeguards against technical errors and intentional misconduct.

Voting machines will be tested twice by a bipartisan panel before the election to ensure they are working properly, he said. Postal votes and early voting votes are counted in secure areas of the regional election offices.

Some polling stations in remote communities were not open or open late during the August primary, leaving hundreds unable to vote in this election. In 2022, some ballots from rural Alaska counties did not arrive until after the general election was certified.

Jackson said the department has plans in place to ensure people across the state can vote when polling places or poll workers are unavailable. He said the department is “working very hard to reach out to our staff ahead of Election Day.”

At the same time, Jackson said, “Things happen.” Poll workers can get sick or be unavailable for other reasons. A building where voting was scheduled to take place may not be accessible.

“If something like this were to happen, we would try to reach out to a community partner, someone we could get additional supplies to, and get someone in the community to raise their hand and do whatever they can to make sure that happens. “ “Alaskan voters will be able to vote in their community on Election Day,” Jackson said.

There have already been a few missteps leading up to Election Day. The Anchorage Daily News reported that more than 90 voters at in-person absentee voting locations in Dillingham, Aniak and King Salmon during the early voting period received the incorrect ballots and judges were listed for the Fourth Judicial District rather than the correct Third Judicial District. Elections Division Director Carol Beecher said the department will contact voters and allow them to either cast new ballots or have their already cast ballots counted, with the exception of incorrect ballots.

After Election Day, the state put safeguards in place to ensure votes were counted correctly, Jackson said. The Division of Elections also describes the controls on its process in a document posted on its website.

The panels that decide whether absentee and polled voters qualify are nonpartisan, Jackson said, and observers are allowed at every stage of the process. Jackson says no part of the process takes place behind closed doors.

“There can be many eyes watching the process, being a part of the process, etc.,” Jackson said.

There is also a post-election review conducted by the State Review Board. Jackson said the panel typically consists of 10 to 12 members, including at least two members from each of the two major parties. During that process, Jackson said, officials hand-counted ballots from a randomly selected precinct from each House district to ensure the machine's count matched the people's count. If there is a difference of more than 1%, all ballot papers will be counted by hand.

The process is intended to detect systematic counting errors in the tabulators used in most counties, but a full hand count has never been necessary since post-election audits began in 1998, Jackson said.

Although the final count is expected Nov. 20, the results are unofficial until certified by the State Review Board. The target date for certification is November 30th.

Jackson said the board works on a consensus basis: There's “not really a collective vote at the end” to decide whether the audit committee should certify the election, he said.

“The board really works as a team,” he said. “Everyone trusts the work that everyone else in the room is doing. We share information with each other – topics that might come up – so everyone knows, because in the end they all sign each other’s work, certifying the election.”

State law says the election department director must “certify” winners after the audit committee completes its work.

Alaska Public Media will broadcast live state election coverage Tuesday from 9 to 11 p.m. This will be followed by special live election coverage from NPR with all the highlights from across the country.

Eric Stone covers state government and follows Alaska law, state policy and its impact on all Alaskans. Reach him at [email protected] and follow him on X at @eriwinsto. Read more about Eric here.