WNBA Playoffs 2024: Prediction of the Aces-Liberty and Sun-Lynx semifinals

Any surprises in the first round of the 2024 WNBA playoffs? Try sweeps. The top four seeds each made it to the two exciting semifinal series that begin on Sunday.

What the first round lacked in drama with four 2-0 victories could be in abundance in the semifinals. The No. 1 seed New York Liberty will face the No. 4 seed Las Vegas Aces in a rematch of last season's WNBA Finals (3 p.m. ET, ABC). That matchup is set for Tuesday.

On Wednesday, the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun reached the WNBA semifinals for the sixth consecutive year by defeating the Indiana Fever.

Then Napheesa Collier scored 42 points, setting a WNBA playoff record, as the No. 2 seed Minnesota Lynx eliminated the Phoenix Mercury in what was the final game of Mercury legend Diana Taurasi's career.

Both semifinals feature teams that have won WNBA titles and those that have yet to win. The Aces are the two-time defending champions, while New York has a 0-5 record in its last attempts to win the title.

The Lynx have won four titles during a seven-year streak that included six finals appearances for Minnesota. The Sun have played in the finals four times, most recently in 2022, but have never won.

Four of the top five finishers in the MVP voting will compete in the semifinals: unanimous winner A'ja Wilson of Las Vegas, runner-up Collier, Breanna Stewart of New York (third) and Alyssa Thomas of Connecticut (fifth).

Let’s take a look at the pairings in the best-of-five semifinals.

Regular season series: New York won 3-0

How they got here: New York swept Atlanta in the first round, with Sabrina Ionescu scoring 36 points in the decisive win on Tuesday. Las Vegas swept Seattle thanks to strong performances from A'ja Wilson (24 points, 13 rebounds), Kelsey Plum (29 points) and Chelsea Gray (9 assists).

This is how they fit together: Wilson versus Stewart is the top matchup. The two superstars have shined in the playoffs since Stewart's time in Seattle and have five MVP awards between them. Wilson has been out of this world all season, averaging 26.9 points and 11.9 rebounds per game in the regular season, which is a career high and a WNBA record. Stewart averaged 20.4 PPG and 8.5 RPG. Not every superstar matchup offers the team's top players the opportunity to cover each other, but Wilson and Stewart do, even if it doesn't happen on every possession.

Aside from Stewart and Wilson, there are exciting matchups all over the court. New York went with a larger lineup against Atlanta, starting rookie Leonie Fiebich in place of veteran Courtney Vandersloot. The lineup gave the Liberty additional size and length on the perimeter. At 6'4″, Fiebich is quick enough to keep up with Jackie Young or Gray, and her length can disrupt passing lanes on the perimeter.

The big question for Vegas is who will defend Jonquel Jones and Stewart. Wilson can defend either one, but not both. Aces coach Becky Hammon has said the fifth spot in the Aces' lineup depends on the matchup. Kiah Stokes started both games against Seattle and is most familiar with the Aces' current lineup. She brings enough size to keep up with Jones, but is a liability offensively. Other options on Vegas' bench don't really solve that problem, though. Las Vegas definitely has a disadvantage in the frontcourt – aside from Wilson, of course – but can the Aces make up for that difference and make up for it in the backcourt? The answer to that question could determine the outcome of the series.

The New York Liberty and the Las Vegas Aces meet again in the WNBA playoffs 👀 @Andraya_Carter gives her 4 KEYS to win the 2023 WNBA Finals 🔑 pic.twitter.com/LwQgrxVelM

— espnW (@espnW) 25 September 2024

What will have the biggest impact on the series? Jones averaged 19.7 points and 11 rebounds in the Liberty's three games against the Aces this season, five points and two rebounds more than she averaged in the regular season. In the first game of the regular season, Jones scored 34 points. In the second, she had 17 rebounds. In the third — when Wilson didn't play — Jones had 15 points and 8 rebounds. If she can string together a few explosive games, that could make the difference. Jones is also an MVP. If she plays like herself, Las Vegas could be in trouble.

New York will advance if: Fiebich and Jones win their respective matchups. New York's roster presents Las Vegas with unique challenges. Young, an elite defender, can't defend Ionescu and Fiebich. Plum is the better defender. Gray isn't 6'4. But someone has to defend Fiebich. In the frontcourt, someone has to defend Jones. If the Liberty can take advantage of these mismatches, New York will return to the Finals and have another shot at the franchise's first title.

Las Vegas will advance if: Their backcourt plays at the level it's capable of on both ends of the court. Wilson has proven all season that she will play at an elite level, but the Aces have not had consistent guard play. Hammon has called Plum, Gray and Young the Aces' “separators.” When that trio scores and successfully applies pressure on the perimeter, Las Vegas is very difficult to beat. — Katie Barnes

Who will win the series?

Andrea Adelson: Aces in 5
Katie Barnes: Aces in 5
Charlie Cream: Freedom in 4
Sean Hurd: Aces in 5
Myron Medcalf: Aces in 5
Kevin Pelton: Freedom in 5
Alexa Philippou: Freedom in 5
Michael Voepel: Aces in 5

Regular season series: Connecticut won 2-1

How they got here: The Sun swept No. 6 seed Indiana 2-0 in the first round, led by veterans Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner. Thomas, who had a triple-double in the first game, finished with a total of 31 points, 26 assists and 15 rebounds. Bonner totaled 37 points and 14 rebounds. And Marina Mabrey, who was acquired via transfer in July, totaled 44 points and 9 assists. The Lynx got the best performance from No. 7 seed Phoenix, but Minnesota — especially Collier — was just too good. She had 38 points in the opening game and jokingly chided herself for missing two free throws in Wednesday's 101-88 win.

Granted, one more free throw and she would have set a playoff record with 43 points. But she made 14 of 20 field goals and 12 of 14 free throws. “I just took what the defense gave me, what my teammates gave me,” Collier said in a masterpiece of understatement.

This is how they fit together: These were the league's two best teams in defense during the regular season: the Sun at 94.1 and the Lynx at 94.8. They were also the best at defending the 3-point line: Minnesota held its opponents to 30.1% shooting and Connecticut limited theirs to 31.3%.

All three regular season games were close. Connecticut won the first on May 23 in overtime, 83-82. The Sun also won the second on July 4, 78-73. Minnesota won on September 17, 78-76.

Both teams also have experienced coaches: Cheryl Reeve led the Lynx to all four titles, and the Sun's Stephanie White was an assistant when Indiana won the title in 2012 and head coach the last time the Fever reached the WNBA Finals in 2015. Indiana lost to Reeve and the Lynx in five games that year. White left the WNBA after 2016 to become a college coach at Vanderbilt, but returned with the Sun last year.

What will have the biggest impact on the series? It may sound simple, but which defense is the best? When both are so good, it's strength against strength.

The teams' offensive ratings are also almost identical: The Lynx finished fourth with 102.8 and the Sun fifth with 102.3.

Collier proved unstoppable in the first round, so what plan do the Sun have for her? Collier scored 31 points in the first meeting with the Sun this season and 25 in the third. She was held to 9 in the second game.

The 32-year-old Thomas and the 37-year-old Bonner are among the most playoff-experienced players in the league and once again seem to be up to the task, even in the most important moments.

If all three players play well, who will step in? Guard Marina Mabrey was great for the Sun in the first round. Another Notre Dame graduate, Kayla McBride, was a strong player for Minnesota.

Minnesota advances if: The Lynx can move the ball nearly as well against Connecticut as they did against Phoenix. Of course, the Mercury aren't as good defensively as the Sun. Still, it was impressive how well the Lynx distributed the ball in this series: They had 30 assists and 10 turnovers in Game 1 and 28 and 7 in Game 2.

We know both teams are solid defensively, but Minnesota was also the WNBA's leading assist provider during the regular season with 23.0 assists per game. If the Lynx can attack the Sun with that level of precision, they will win the series.

Connecticut will advance if: The Sun are able to slow Collier – we will not say stop, because that's not going to happen — and if they beat the Lynx at their own game by limiting them more from the three-point line. The Fever hit 26.7% of their three-point shots in Wednesday's loss to the Sun and 21.4% in Sunday's loss. That was a big reason why the Fever couldn't get their offense going as well as they had until the end of the regular season. The Sun make it tough on defense and are as physical as any team in the league.

Who will win the series?

Andrea Adelson: Sun in 5
Katie Barnes: Lynx in 4
Charlie Cream: Lynx in 4
Sean Hurd: Lynx in 5
Myron Medcalf: Lynx in 5
Kevin Pelton: Lynx in 5
Alexa Philippou: Lynx in 5
Michael Voepel: Lynx in 5